I’m midway through my 42nd year and therefore obligated to know the answers to the universe, so I’ve jotted down 10 predictions across 3 categories to look back on in a few years (or decades). Full of bias, not advice, just fun.
Microsoft
Playing a major role in my career I feel the most engaged in these predictions, but of course they are full of bias for the same reason.
1. Windows Server will play no important role for Microsoft and may even be abandoned within 10 years making Windows a Desktop platform only.
Enterprise will soon follow Azure’s decreasing use of Windows and use Linux based servers. This comes in part thanks to the continued improvements of making .NET (and associated technologies like SQL Server) work great in a Linux environment.
2. Microsoft will create a special Enterprise Desktop Version of Windows that centers around Security, Corporate Controls and Stability without Bloat or built-in AI features as a subscription.
Active Directory and the family of corporate management tools are still the best in market and a strategy pivot to de-bloating the operating system to create a familiar, highly usable and full enterprise manageable desktop will be hard to beat if they act before 2030.
3. Windows at Home will be the same version at the Enterprise Desktop variant just without manageability and be provided free of charge.
What better way to get people used to Windows than giving it to them for free in a context they aren’t willing to pay for anyway (some used to call it the Adobe model). Don’t invest in “Home”-only features, let the Open Source community of small software vendors take care of that.
4. Windows becomes open source.
Once you make money off the central manageability of your operating system, is the idea of open sourcing it that far off?
AI
The amount and speed of change in the world by AI is unbelievable, so I wouldn’t be surprised if these predictions are either implemented by the end of the year or sound utterly ridiculous in the same time frame.
1. Cloudflare will play a major role in AI through a merger or similar strategic agreement.
By some estimates 25% of internet traffic goes through Cloudflare. They can both provide the source material for LLMs (and block other’s from doing the same) and signals for what is relevant on the web. They will become a priority consideration for Answer Engine Optimization (AEO).
2. There will be no reliable slop/AI-written detection algorithm or system.
The simple reason being that any detection system can just get plugged right back into an LLM until it passes.
3. Trust will become a self-hosted client side asset.
Trust in the form of content consumption and subscriptions will move from the individual walled gardens towards the browser and be provided as a Browser API to services such as Chat clients in order to (1) influence search results but also (2) signal trustworthy content. But it will be done in a privacy conserving manner (sooner or later).
The World in General
Last but not least, just general ideas I’ve been pondering about recently.
1. More movies will be split into two parts separated by a year between release.
Why not film twice as long if you’ve already invested the fixed costs once? Movie goers seem to be ok with waiting a year to resolve the story arc if the story has a natural break point. Film writers will cater to that in their scripts.
2. Schools will focus on creativity, personal and social skills instead of knowledge transfer
This includes self reflection, mental self-care and information discernment (judging, interpreting).
3. Audio and possibly video recording of one’s personal life at all times (including all interactions) will be normal for upcoming generations
The benefits to having a record of one’s day combined with an LLM that can provide support and manage calendars, relationships and a lot more will dwarf the privacy concerns of being recorded at all times as long as the recording is done individually (i.e. not by a central or state actor). I fear the unknowns of this one.
Let’s see how many of these age well. Check back in 2030 or 2027?